https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZOk1o

Joe Biden will win, but the margins will be smaller than the polls say.

The famous blue wall will be back for the Democrats. An I also predict a win for Biden in Ohio.

I was ready to comment on what promised to be an interesting primary. All of a sudden, every candidate dropped out. And Joe Biden was a winner. Covid-19 came along and there has not been much of a campaign. Right now we are less than 100 days from the election. It is about time Joe Biden picked a running mate. After all, there is only one life standing between the VP and the Presidency. and Biden is not young anymore, so you better make a good choice.

It will be a women, that is almost certain. Will it be a women of color? Biden is under a lot of pressure to pick a black woman. Let us take a look at some of the candidates.

Tammy Duckworth

Interesting profile as a veteran, something Americans tend to like and Asian roots. So yes a woman of color, but the wrong one.

Gretchen Whitmer

Gov of Michigan, a state the Democrats need to take back. However , Joe Biden is already doing great in the polls (+10% compared to Trump), he might decide Whitmer is not needed to win the state. Of all the white female candidates, she is probably in the best position. Even before Elisabeth Warren. The VP should be someone who represents the new generation of the Party. Whitmer, 48 years old, is just that.

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is a black woman with Indian roots. check

A bit strange she is still in contention for the VP pick. During the campaign she attacked Joe Biden on busing and his past work with segregationists. Given the good relation between Joe Bidens late son Beau and Harris, this attack came as a surprise to him. Recently Biden was photographed with notes that stated he holds no grudge towards her. And she has supported Biden after her own campaign ended. That last point is maybe her biggest drawback. She wanted to be President herself, will she play the second fiddle? If I was Biden I think twice about her.

Susan Rice

Another black woman. She worked with Biden under Obama. She is not that well known with the public but she has a lot of experience on the international diplomatic scene. Her biggest problem, her role in the Benghazi attack. Something Trump liked to throw in Clintons face 4 year ago too. My guess, Susan Rice will be the new Secretary of State, not the VP.

Tulsi Gabbard

She is not mentioned anywhere, but she would be my pick. As a Democrat, she did not vote for impeaching Trump! She was neutral. We are currently stuck in this bipartisan war. She knew that it would only make matters worse. Months down the line Republicans and Democrats are bickering over support for people in need after massive job losses due to the covid-19 crisis. Trump is using executive orders to bypass congress. She also is more leaning towards Bernie Sanders. A group Biden musn’t forget. But she hasn’t got much friends in the Democratic Party. She will not be it. She is just too smart for the job.

Honorable mentions

Karen Bass: controversial ideas about Castro and Scientology.

Stacey Abrams: You get asked for the Vice Presidency, you do not apply for the job in the media. And she is yet to win a national election.

Conclusion

I put my money on Kamala Harris. And I also predict Biden will regret his decision. Biden was always loyal to Obama. He should not expect the same level of loyalty from Harris.

After the caucus in Nevada and the primary in South Carolina, we are starting to see a bit clearer what everyones chances are. The clear frontrunner is Bernie Sanders. However , frontrunners don’t always win the race.

He is still facing a difficult path towards the nomination, not in the least because the Democratic Party will do everything in its power to stop him. Bernie supporters have not forgotten how the establishment , through the system of superdelegates, basically made it impossible for Hillary Clinton to not be the nominee. This time around , superdelegates only come into play in a second roud of voting at the convention. If Bernie Sandrs gets the 1991 delegates vote he needs, there is nothing that the party can do to stop him. If he falls short of that number, they will gang up on him.

After Iowa and New Hampshire the DNC already changed the rules for getting an invite to the debates. Suddenly the minimum number of donors is no longer a requirement , so Michael Bloomberg could go up on stage. Funny to see him in the debate before the Nevada caucus, while he is not even on the ballot. The centrist lane was already crowded and another one in the mix will only help Sanders to sprint away at the left side of the road. And after Nevada, his lane just got broader.

Bernie needs 2 things to win the 1991 votes. He needs to own the left and the center has to be divided. That way, getting 30% or 40% of the vote might get you enough delegates. You want to know how to do that. Ask the grandmaster. You can find him in Pennsylvania Avenue 1600, Or Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

How will they try to stop him?

Suddenly Elisabeth Warren seems to have a lot of cash. If they can keep her in the race to take away progressive votes from Sanders, less likely he is to to the 1991 delegates required. Surely all the donors for Elisabeth Warren must know by now she can’t win.

Secondly, less people taking away moderate votes. That is why Buttigieg and Steyer have quit before Super Tuesday. They will be replaced by Bloomberg, who now enters the race and will probably pick up a few delegates. Joe Biden looks like the big challenger for Bernie Sanders now. Sanders has to have as many delegates as the rest of the field combined. He will need big margins on Tuesday to do that. The DNC are digging a hole for themselves. When Senator Sanders congratulated Biden for his win in South Carolina, the crowd was booing. They will not stand for it, and the DNC can forget that these people will support Joe Biden in the end.